Will this crash be bigger than 2008?

“London property prices set to crash 20%”

“EU Referendum will leave the UK in financial peril”

“Stamp Duty Increases Are The End of The Bubble”

Headlines of doom and gloom are the best way to sell newspapers. However, they are not necessarily an accurate reflection of what is actually happening in the market.

Now I am not saying that everything is healthy in the prime London property market at the moment. But at the same time, things are nowhere near as catastrophic as the press is implying… and this is where the opportunity lies.

The market is definitely down but this is due to the sharp increase to Stamp Duty Land Tax and the uncertainty being caused by the EU Referendum. So the market is correcting due to the increased cost of transactions rather than any underlying, systemic issue.

Unfortunately this is a far less interesting story to report in the papers, but if you truly understand what is happening in the market, 2016 will prove to be a very good year to have bought property just as was the case in 1998.

Back then the talking heads were convinced the property market was going to crash. There was:

1. The Asian crisis

2. Russia defaulted on its bonds

3. Long Term Credit Management collapsed

A couple of years later we had the dotcom crash and again the papers were full of stories about the end of the western economic system. Again these proved to be wrong, but throughout this period the press were reporting the end of the UK property market:

1998 – The Budget – “Mr Brown said: "I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the future." He said he was determined that the UK should not return to the "instability, speculation and negative equity" of the 1980s and 1990s.” The Daily Telegraph

2000 – “Housing-market experts, from estate agents on the ground to analysts in the high-rise city banks, are agreed on one thing: this is more than the annual summer slowdown. House-price inflation has dropped considerably and, in some pockets of the capital - usually areas on the fringes of more fashionable addresses - where people were paying silly prices for bad houses, properties are indeed worth up to 10 to 15 per cent less than they were six months ago.” The Daily Telegraph

2001 – “The house price indices are for once agreed: prices are slipping as the effects of recession take hold. Suddenly, the telephone-number price-tags of rather ordinary two-bedroom flats are beginning to look ridiculous.” The Daily Telegraph

2002 – “The top of the property market has been in trouble for some time… Property in some outer London boroughs now changes hands at phenomenal multiples of average local earnings - the prices being pushed up by a relatively small number of people driven out of expensive parts of the city.

In Bromley, for example, house prices are now 10.4 times local earnings” The Daily Telegraph

2003 – “He [Roger Bootle] said: 'The message is clear. Houses are now so over-valued that a prolonged period of falling prices is on the cards.' … Some London 'hot spots' have already seen prices marked down in recent weeks, which has been attributed to lower City bonuses and Stock Market uncertainties.” The Daily Mail 1st March 2003

2005 – “After five years of unstoppable price rises, the housing market has been showing signs of jitters.” BBC

Which just goes to show that you cannot rely on what you read in the press. This was a period of massive house price gains and yet the exact opposite was being reported. In fact the market exploded much higher into 2006 and early 2007 before the crash.

It is a simple fact that economists’ predictions about London house prices are invariably wrong.

One of the best examples of this was in 2003: Roger Bootle, managing director of Capital Economics, formerly chief economist at HSBC and one of the Bank of England's 'wise men' said:

“House prices could fall by as much as 30 per cent over the next four years”

This is someone to whom we were supposed to listen because he had better information and a surer grip on economics than even the best experts. But if you had followed his advice you would have missed out on some of the largest house price gains in history.

So why do genuinely intelligent people with access to better data than the average Joe consistently get it so wrong?

Quite simply they fail to acknowledge 400 years of history and research that have highlighted the best indicators which have a clear and proven track record of accurately predicting what will happen in the market.


The good news is that you can use this knowledge to your advantage.

When you initially contacted me you wanted advice on acquiring a home or investment in London. I hope that you have found the information you have received to date useful and that you have discovered and bought the ideal property.

However, if you are still trying to find the right home or investment and:

1. Are concerned about valuations and making an expensive mistake – especially in this market

2. Are frustrated by dealing with estate agents who are not listening to your needs

3. Think you are missing out on the best opportunities

4. Simply do not have time to speak to the estate agents and weed through the jungle of overpriced or simply average properties they are sending you

5. Would like to be advised by an expert with a proven track record of negotiating prices that his clients didn’t think possible

6. Would like to have first refusal on the finest homes, many of which never reach the open market

7. Want to make an astute purchase but with none of the wasted time, stress and hassle suffered by the typical buyer

then you should reserve a consultation with me to discover how you can acquire your ideal home or investment while saving considerable time, money and stress - simply email veronika@mercuryhomesearch.com or call 0800 389 4280 (or +44 800 389 4280 from outside the UK).

I firmly believe that in years to come people will look back on 2016 as a fantastic year to have bought a property in prime central London. Pretty much every indicator is pointing to strong property growth in the UK which is why I have just bought a larger property myself and have my eyes on investment opportunities.

Of course, different areas, price ranges and style of property will perform differently. So if you want to truly understand what is happening in your target market then you cannot afford to be guided by the general figures and commentary in the press. They are misleading and you absolutely must not rely on the information. If you don’t believe me then just reread the quotes listed above.

In the consultation you will receive accurate and specific information that you can use to make better decisions than the typical property buyer. It is an old adage in financial markets that if the story is in the papers, then it is also already reflected in the price of the stock concerned. The same is true for property.

To get an accurate picture and have better information so that you can make an astute acquisition simply reserve a consultation by emailing veronika@mercuryhomesearch.com or call 0800 389 4280 (or +44 800 389 4280 from outside the UK).