The subject line of this article was the headline of a piece in The Guardian this week.
“Millions of homes are at risk from climate-related subsidence, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS).
As hotter, drier summers driven by global heating become more frequent, the ground under houses can shrink and drag down a property’s foundations. The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent and a tranche of land from Oxford up to the Wash on England’s east coast, according to scientists, who say mitigation measures will be needed.
Anna Harrison, a scientist at the BGS, said: “By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence.
Most are in the London area and that’s also where you’re going to see bigger changes in rainfall and temperature. It’s a double whammy.”
The article then went on to explain that “Subsidence can substantially reduce a property’s value and lenders will often refuse to offer mortgages until it has been resolved” and that “In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years. There were £153m of subsidence-related insurance claims in the first six months of the same year.”
Which all sounds very scary, but when one considers that the total value of homes in the UK housing market is c. £9.1 trillion according to Savills, this puts the figure into perspective.
This is what Rob Desbruslais of Desbruslais Chartered Surveyors says about subsidence:
“I think there is a slight increased risk but we have had prolonged droughts in the past and although there was a tendency for insurers to underpin properties even with minor cracking (especially in 1976), these days engineers will design ground management features such as root barriers, and underpin only as a last resort.
It’s unusual for a property to be affected if there isn’t a tree nearby. Many buildings have tolerated cyclical movement for decades or centuries. It would take a seriously prolonged drought to see widespread structural problems.”
So, do you really think that millions of houses across London and the UK are going to disappear into the ground?
Of course, a house may well suffer from subsidence, but in most cases this is not a massive issue as highlighted by the fact that the average value of a household subsidence claim is approximately £17,820, according to data published by the Association of British Insurers (ABI).
Does this seem as catastrophic as the article suggests…?
